There are various techniques to make a forex forecast. If you're involved in forex trading, you already understand that it is the exchange of two different types of currency. You sell one to buy the other. Each trade is really two different trades. The successful forex trader takes advantage of the exchange rates and tries to find trends in the money market that allows them to monopolize and maximize their return.
If your account is in USD (United State dollars) and you believe the Euro is going to go up in relationship to the dollar, you want to sell the dollar and buy the Euro. The way you write the exchange is EUR / USD buy. The Euro is the base and the USD is the counter currency. If your instructions were buy, you'd buy the Euro and sell the USD. The instructions are always describing the base currency with the counter having the opposite type of exchange. If you ordered a sell then you'd sell the Euro and buy USD.
Forex forecast consists of two different methods. You can use the technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis forecast with events and how they should affect the market. The technical forex forecast puts its primary focus on what already occurred within the market. It uses chart to help predict what happens next according to the price movement.
Technical analysis takes the price, the volume and sometimes also interest to create charts. It uses the movement of the past to predict the movement in the future. Much like stock charting, it takes the data to create instruments to use as tools and often follows and adjusts the charts in real time. Even though you may know that the market should drop because the country, for example, had a massive hurricane, if the movement of the currency does not indicate that movement, then all the fundamental information in the world does not count.
Technical analysis also looks at the trends or patterns of the currency and anticipates the past will predict the future. Many different patterns are repetitive and forex forecasting uses the charts to find that information. The trends and patterns repeat often with little deviations. This makes the tracking easier.
Technical analysis uses five basic categories that involve the price. They use indicators, the number theory, waves, gaps (between the high and low) and trends (also known as the moving average.) Many who trade stock will find these terms quite familiar.
Fundamental analysis forecasts the future movement of the currency price from political, economic, social, and even seasonal factors. The fundamental analysis for a forex forecast correlates to looking at a company's financials and news to forecast stock movement. Understanding the country's supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather and governmental policies, both monetary and otherwise, help predict where the price should land.
Most successful traders use a combination of both forms of forex forecast to make their decisions to buy and sell the various currencies. Knowing the countries and their historical patterns of value in relationship to events can only tell so much, watching the technical patterns helps to fill in the gaps and adjust for attitude changes or inaccurate information.