Posted by Pete Stolcers on June 4
Posted 9:30 AM ET – The market is breaking through horizontal resistance and tech stocks are leading the way. Possible trade wars and an interest rate hike next week have not dampened spirits. The economic data has been strong and that is fueling the move.
Last week the jobless rate fell to an 18-year low. ISM manufacturing was also better-than-expected.
Steel tariffs were imposed on Canada and the EU. There will be backlash and they will retaliate with tariffs of their own. China said that any tariffs imposed on them it will end trade negotiations. The market was very worried about a trade war two months ago, but now it is giving Trump the benefit of the doubt..
The Fed will hike rates a week from Wednesday. That move is widely expected and the comments will be scrutinized. Traders will watch for signs of accelerated tightening in 2019.
The summit with North Korea will take place next week. Trump said that this is the beginning of a longer-term process and that we should not expect immediate results. As long as the tone is cordial, the market will like the news.
Swing traders can buy the QQQ in the last 5 minutes of trading if it is above $173. We have to be careful on these opening rallies. Good news is priced in and dark clouds still loom. The most threatening is a breakdown in trade negotiations with China.
Day traders need to make sure the early rally holds. If there is a reversal it will happen in the first 30 minutes. If the gains hold, buy stocks and watch for a grind higher. Use SPY $274 as your guide.
I still believe that any surprise favors the downside so I am treading cautiously.
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