Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 8
Posted 9:30 AM ET – My prayers are with all of you in harm’s way.
Hurricane Irma and José are keeping a lid on the market. Once these storms pass the market will try to take out the high. The only other speed bump is the FOMC meeting on September 20th. You need to be prepared to buy any dip – I will gradually start scaling in today.
Trump’s debt ceiling deal with Democrats is a game changer. It demonstrates his willingness to reach across the aisle and Tea Party conservatives lost clout. If moderate Democrats work with Trump, a healthcare bill and tax reform are possible. Perception is important and buyers will return soon as the storms pass.
The debt ceiling has been pushed back three months and the table has been cleared. Now politicians can focus on tax reform.
North Korea will be a constant “fly in the ointment”. The market will discount a conflict until it happens.
The economic news has been good. Ignore the jobs report and focus on ADP.
Earnings season was excellent last quarter and the guidance was strong.
Swing traders need to gradually enter long positions during the next two weeks. Buy November calls and know that you are early. When you get a chance to add at lower levels, do so. We could see a breakout very soon and you might be forced to buy that breakout if you delay. I doubt that the SPY will challenge the 100-day MA. Anything below $246 is a great entry point.
Day traders need to let the market come in this morning. Hurricane Irma is on its most devastating path and investors are nervous. We could see selling much of the day. After the first wave of selling, I will start trading from the long side if SPY $246 holds. Use that as your guide.
Trump changed my bias overnight. I was looking for a nasty debt ceiling battle that went down to the wire. Both sides would have demonstrated an inability to work together. My job is to look for catalysts and this development will pave the way for a year-end rally. It will start early this year.
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