Posted by Pete Stolcers on July 27

Posted 9:00 AM ET – Yesterday the market shouldered a fairly hawkish FOMC statement. The Fed will start reducing its balance sheet in September and a December rate hike is likely. Stocks treaded water after the news and they shot higher after the close. Facebook is up 7% after announcing earnings and tech stocks are poised to run this morning.

Amazon will post results after the close today and Apple will post after the close next Tuesday. This is the climax for Q2 earnings and the news has generally been good. Once mega cap tech stocks report the excitement will wane.

The political backdrop improved slightly when the healthcare bill was passed. It will be debated when Congress returns from recess. This step in the right direction will calm nerves while DC goes on vacation.

The speed bump I referenced this week has passed and the market will grind higher. We should still have a couple of decent weeks.

Swing traders should be long QQQ calls. Raise your stop to $145 on a closing basis. I have reached my target and I will start scaling out of my calls today. Bullish sentiment is running high and speculators will be flushed out soon.

Day traders need to let the early excitement die down. I would not chase tech stocks. They need to pullback and any dip will present a good buying opportunity. The S&P 500 is up this morning, but it is weak relative to QQQ.

We made great money during this run and I’m going to lock in profits. We have a couple of decent weeks left and maybe 2 to 3% more upside. The rally will stall and then with each passing day the risk of a pullback will increase. I suggest being flat a week from today and taking some time off.

I want to keep my powder dry and I see a market drop and bounce coming in September and October.

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