Last week here I laid out the three open interest ranges for SPY expirations. In general it was a non-eventful week in that all three expirations pinned as you can see below.
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- 16 wins (I only count wins when they are either big wins or where there was enough time to take profits).
- 5 that didn’t trigger
- 6 scratch trades
- 1 loss
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Open Interest: If you want more information on how to read the high calls and puts in the open interest see here.
SPY-M: (16 of 23 for pins since Monday expiration inception).* Monday’s expiration suggests that price will likely close at or above 283. There are a decent amount of calls at both 282 and 283 so it’s possible for price to get into that area; however, because the puts are much higher, unless we have a very weak market, price should be able to stay above the 283 puts by expiration. There is some call resistance that begins at 284, but they aren’t so high that a very strong market couldn’t start pushing through them. At the moment this open interest would suggest a close between 283 and 284, but it does have some wiggle room if we get some sort of trending day.
SPY-W: (73 of 99 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* Wednesday’s expiation currently shows the best pin to be between 282 and 284, but this can definitely change as the week progresses. If price were to get under the 282 puts there isn’t any put support till 279. That put support is very strong so it would take a very weak market or news to get price under there next week. To the upside there is call resistance that begins at 284. Currently all of the call resistance beginning from 284 is not very high (i.e. strong) and thus, at the present moment if price were strong enough it wouldn’t have much trouble getting through those calls. Make sure to check for updates on how this open interest changes before Wednesday expiration if I don’t post it via twitter.
SPY-F: (58 of 91 pins since I began tracking Friday’s).* The main takeaway from Friday’s current open interest is that it might be hard for price to get or to at least sustain over the 285/286 level because of the high calls. There is small put support at 282, but in general put support is lacking for Friday’s expiration. The current best pin is around 282/283, but there is a lot of time for that to change.
Monday 7/30: Successful pin.
Wednesday 8/1: Successful pin.
Friday 8/3: Successful pin.