Hope everyone had a lovely holiday. Last week the free weekly post was off, but you can see below that all three expirations for SPY did indeed pin. In fact, those that either belong to my service or took it upon themselves to look at Friday’s open interest would have known the high likelihood of a 275 pin and profited handsomely from that.
If you have not yet subscribed to my weekly freebie you can do so below to get next weeks free trade IDEA (not alert – if you want an alert you need to be a subscriber) sent to your mailbox Monday morning.
Last week was off, but the week before had FB as the freebie with two different triggers. One of them did trigger and worked, but only to the first target and almost the second. Sassyoptions premium didn’t actually take that trade. Because only one target was officially met I will call last week a scratch trade. The stats for the weekly freebie since I began sending them are as follows:
- 15 wins (I only count wins when they are either big wins or where there was enough time to take profits).
- 4 that didn’t trigger
- 5 scratch trades
- 1 loss
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- Full premium service includes all day commentary, open interest and technical analysis on ‘in-play’ momentum stocks. Real time trade alerts through my exact entries and exists (meaning I can’t hide behind vague alerts without telling you what price I paid or sold at).
- Weekly Open Interest and Strategy Post – Open interest and technical analysis for AAPL, AMZN, BABA, FB, GS, GOOGL, NFLX, TSLA for this coming week. This does not include my private twitter with exact trade alerts or any updates during the week. This is more an idea based post that you use to trade on your own.
Open Interest: If you want more information on how to read the high calls and puts in the open interest see here.
SPY-M: (13 of 19 for pins since Monday expiration inception).* Monday’s expiration gives us a pretty defined range from 272 to 276. This implies that price will close in between that range at the end of the day Monday and possibly closer to the best pin of 275. Of course there are always exceptions and a strong trending day (similar to Friday) can push through some of the high calls; however, it will definitely take a lot of buying power to plow through several of those high strikes and remain above them. Bottom line, unless there is evidence of a trending up day (you can determine that by reading intra-day internals, i.e. up/down volume, adv/dec line, tick etc.) then it will be difficult for price to hold above those high calls. Should price drop to the down side there is good put support starting at 272.
SPY-W: (71 of 95 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* The main thing that sticks out for Wednesday’s expiration is the high 275 calls. Bulls will want to see price stay over 275 early in the week so that this open interest shifts. If price stays near or below 275 the first half of the week then it makes it more likely to get stuck until at least after Wednesdays expiration. If I don’t update the open interest via twitter and you are not part of my premium service then be sure to check open interest updates before expiation especially if price holds over 275.
SPY-F: (56 of 88 pins since I began tracking Friday’s).* Similar to Monday’s expiration, Friday has a range of the most likely area for SPY to close; however, this time there is more upside room. The current range is from 274 where there is high put support to 279, the start of high call resistance. This of course can shift throughout the week, but it likely won’t unless there are large price movements early in the week. This also suggests more upside room above last Friday’s high, but also be aware that the upside might take place in the latter half of the week due to the high call resistance in the Monday and Wednesday expirations.
Monday 7/2: Successful pin.
Tuesday 7/3: Successful pin.
Friday 7/6: Successful pin.