Last week the bulls held control as price closed over all the high calls for each expiration. Next week is monthly options expiration.
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Last weeks Freebie was AMZN and worked extremely well. Originally price went to the high calls at 1750 and backed off (as I mentioned it probably would), but then later it got through that price and reached every target and then some. At SassyOptions we took the 1760 calls at $3.2. We existed too early but had we waited to the last target they would have been worth $30. Had we held them even longer than that they would have been worth $55 😂. I guess a profit is still a profit.
- 16 wins (I only count wins when they are either big wins or where there was enough time to take profits).
- 4 that didn’t trigger
- 5 scratch trades
- 1 loss
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Open Interest: If you want more information on how to read the high calls and puts in the open interest see here.
SPY-M: (13 of 20 pins since Monday expiration inception).* Monday’s open interest leans bullish because it imply’s that SPY will most likely close at or above all the high put support from 277 to 279. The current best pin is around 279.5/280, but there is much less call resistance so if the market is strong it can easily push through the 280 calls. If price does gap down on SPY, it might be a good long opportunity as the puts should push it back up before the close. Of course there is always exceptions so look for other market clues as well to confirm, such as intra-day internal breadth indicators (advance/decline, up/down volume, tick, etc).
SPY-W: (71 of 96 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* The only thing that really sticks out is the high 282 and 284 calls. Those were probably some type of spread so maybe someone knows something, but for now we should probably see both levels as resistance. Also, because that position was likely put on by one fund it can easily be closed so definitely watch to see if the open interest changes throughout the week.
SPY-F: (56 of 89 pins since I began tracking Friday’s).* Because this is a monthly expiration, the Friday open interest likely won’t change much. There is high put support at 270 and high call resistance at 280 and then again from 283 to 286. If price can get and remain above 280 then those calls can help push price higher, but it might be challenging for price to get and/or to hold over 283 unless there is very strong momentum to push through those calls and start to shift the open interest. If price cannot get through 280 then it could get stuck all week due to the 280 high calls. One thing to also watch for is price holding over 280 at the start of the week only to then give it back by the end of the week due to those high calls not shifting. It’s possible the 280 calls will close, but it often doesn’t happen on a monthly OPEX.
Monday 7/9: Failed to the upside.
Wednesday 7/11: Failed to the upside.
Friday 7/13: Failed to the upside.