Last week here we had 3 different ranges to gauge where SPY would likely not close on each expiration day. Even after undercutting the Tuesday high puts, by expiration all the puts fell back out of the money. Bottom line, the ranges worked and are always very helpful to know because they offer buy or sell opportunities.

If you have not yet subscribed to my weekly freebie you can do so below to get next weeks free trade IDEA (not alert – if you want an alert you need to be a subscriber) sent to your mailbox Monday morning. Last week was AMZN which did trigger and was a winner getting past it’s first target. BABA got a mention in the freebie because it was one from 2 weeks ago and also worked, but I won’t count it in the stats as it wasn’t the highlighted freebie. 

The stats for the weekly freebie since I began sending them are as follows:

  • 13 wins (I only count wins when they are either big wins or where there was enough time to take profits).
  • 4 that didn’t trigger
  • 4 scratch trades
  • 1 loss

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Open Interest: If you want more information on how to read the high calls and puts in the open interest see here.

SPY-M: (9 of 14 for pins since Monday expiration inception).* There really isn’t much to see except the very high calls that begin at 276 through 277.5. Unless someone knows something, price is very unlikely to close above there on Monday. There is put support that begins at 272 so price will most likely close over that level Monday; however the put support is definitely not as strong as the call resistance, so any any kind of trending down day could certainly bust through it.

SPY-W: (67 of  90 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* The main take-aways for Wednesday expiration is the high puts at 268 and high calls at 276. For now it should be assumed that any dip to or under 268 before Wednesday is a buy and any move over 276 a sell. There is no perfect pin at the moment and the calls and puts from 270 to 274 will likely shift a bit as the week progresses.

SPY-F: (53 of 83 pins since I began tracking Friday’s).* The current best pin for Friday’s expiration is 271, but there is plenty of time for this to change. Under 271 there is high puts at pretty much every point level down to 265 so holding under 270 could lead to delta heading. Over 271 there isn’t much call resistance till 274/275 which will act as resistance, at least on a first push.

Pinning Stuff:

*An explanation as to how I define range pinning can be found here. More information about what pinning is can be found under the education section or here.

Monday 5/29: Successful pin. Maybe it wasn’t perfect (recall I don’t count pins based on being perfect – see above for an explanation of how I judge them), but it sure held the relevant put strike, even after undercutting it.

Wednesday 5/30: Successful pin. Same reasoning as above.

Friday 6/1: Successful pin.

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