Last week here I wrote about the three SPY expirations. The Wednesday one changed quite a bit during the week (which I posted to Twitter) and yet all three did end up pinning. Pinning within range doesn’t always work, but knowing the ranges is an amazing tool at every traders disposal (especially when I post them weekly for free).

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Last week the Freebie had the week off; however if you had been a subscriber to SassyOptions you would have experienced some massive winners in both NFLX and TSLA.  NFLX from $2.29 to $12.19 and then again for a double and TSLA from $2.15 to $22.5 and again from $1.72 to $7.0. It pays to be a subscriber (literally).

The stats for the weekly freebie since I began sending them are as follows:

  • 14 wins (I only count wins when they are either big wins or where there was enough time to take profits).
  • 4 that didn’t trigger
  • 4 scratch trades
  • 1 loss

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Open Interest: If you want more information on how to read the high calls and puts in the open interest see here.

SPY-M: (11 of 16 for pins since Monday expiration inception).* Based on Monday’s open interest it doesn’t seem that SPY will be breaking over 280 early in the week due to all the high calls at that strike. If price does get to 280 or above then there are high odds it will fail before the close. The best pin is between 277 and 278, but given how few the option volume is under the 280 strike the pin is not very prominent and wouldn’t necessarily rely on it. 

SPY-W: (69 of 92 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* Similar to Monday’s expiration, SPY may continue to struggle to break over 280 due to all the high calls from 279 to 280. Unless SPY can get over 280 and importantly hold over it, then those calls will likely push price back down prior to Wednesday expiration. If price can hold over 280 early in the week then the open interest will likely shift. The current best pin is between 276 and 278, but this has high odds of changing prior to Wednesday’s expiration due to the low volume on those strikes.

SPY-F: (54 of 85 pins since I began tracking Friday’s).* After Wednesday’s expiration is when SPY has the best chance to break over 280 if the market is strong. The reason for this is the calls at 280 pose less resistance (for now as this can change as the week progresses) than in the above open interests. To the downside there is good put support at 276 so if price does get to or below that level during the week it offers a great place to go long, at least upon the first touch. On a second touch the puts don’t have as much strength. And if the 280 call end up growing or acting as resistance then expect another rangebound week. If price approaches 280 it’s always a good idea to also look at other indicators such as intraday breadth signals (up/down volume, advance/decline line, ticks etc) to see if they support a break above 280 or not. The combination is a powerful tool. Or you can be a part of my service where I will give you that information in real time.

Pinning Stuff:

*An explanation as to how I define range pinning can be found here. More information about what pinning is can be found under the education section or here.

Monday 6/11: Successful pin. 

Wednesday 6/13: Successful pin.

Friday 6/15: Successful pin.

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