Last week SPX saw a level it hasn’t seen since the first month of the year. There was only one pin last week; however, it’s important to note that none of the large levels of either puts or calls were violated. Monday and Friday weren’t perfect pins, but they did fall within the large heavily optioned strikes. Either way, I labeled those two as failures which you can see below.
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- 16 wins (I only count wins when they are either big wins or where there was enough time to take profits).
- 5 that didn’t trigger
- 6 scratch trades
- 1 loss
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SPY-M: (16 of 24 for pins since Monday expiation inception).* The current best pin for Monday is 284, but it has some wiggle room. The more important take away is there is put support starting at 283. If SPY gets under there and can’t quickly recover then it’s a caution sign that the market still has strong sellers. Above 284 there is high calls at pretty much every dollar strike so there would need to be some very interested buyers to keep pushing through those.
SPY-W: (74 of 100 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* This is good news for the bulls if price can manage to stay above 283. If price gets below there then there isn’t much put support in the near area. As long as price remains above those high 283 puts though it has plenty of room higher with very little call resistance.
SPY-F: (58 of 92 pins since I began tracking Friday’s).* Friday’s expiration is also better for the bulls in that there is good put support that goes from 278 to 280. It still does leave some room to the downside, but unless the market is extremely weak then price shouldn’t go under there. Furthermore, there are very little calls standing in the way of price rallying if there is strength. There are some calls at 285, but not enough (yet) to stop strong buying and then there isn’t again call resistance till 290 (again that is for now as it could change throughout the week).
Monday 8/6: Failed pin to the upside.
Wednesday 8/8: Successful pin.
Friday 8/10: Failed to the downside.