What a month this has been!
It’s all over now because Monday is a holiday and EVERYONE (who matters) is out the door early on Friday or Thursday or Wednesday for that matter and they don’t come back until next Tuesday or Wednesday or, if they do – they sure aren’t working much. While Americans complain that they don’t get many holidays – they certainly seem to stretch the ones they do have out quite a bit.
I said we shouldn’t expect much volume and yesterday’s SPY volume was 60% of Friday’s and I think we’ll see even lower transaction numbers as the week goes on. In other words, the whole thing is a joke – you may as well take the week off. Our picks from yesterday morning were no joke as the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures popped back to 7,450 this morning for a lovely $1,000 per contract gain from the long play we discussed in Monday Monring’s PSW Report. Likewise the S&P Futures (/ES) gained 10 points at 2,860 (again) and that was good for $500 per contract – not a bad way to start our trading week.
This morning we’re playing JULY Gasoline (/RBN19) Futures at $1.99 and I’ll be very surprised if we’re not at $2.05 by Thursday and, at $420 per penny, per contract, that could be good for $2,520 per contract – good enough to barbeque some steaks instead of hot dogs this weekend. A stop below the $198 line limits the risk to $420.
This weekend is the start of “Summer Driving Season” and the EIA forecasts a slight increase in consumption vs. last year, despite a 1% increase in overall fuel efficiency for the motor vehicle fleet:
For summer 2019, EIA forecasts U.S. motor gasoline consumption will average 9.54 million barrels per day (b/d), up 29,000 b/d (0.3%) compared with last summer’s level and nearly the same as the record summer average set in 2017. Highway travel is forecast to be 1.3% higher than last summer. The forecast increase in highway travel is largely because of growth in employment and population. The effect of the increase in highway travel is forecast to be partially offset by a 1.0%