Well, let me tell you: While technical analysis is not the silver bullet, there are certainly strong clues and evidence to help one wade through the waters and not get bit by an unseen shark. However, it takes some good understanding, constant learning (repetition), belief in behavioral patterns and identification. If you’re willing to learn, you might give yourself a chance to stay in the game.
Some technical indicators are very clear and evident, others are not so smooth. Some require short timeframes, others require a longer term view. Put a collection of them together and they start to paint a picture of direction, or at least a strong probability of it.
The most important indicator of course is price action, which for the SPX 500 had been a laggard for awhile. Strikingly, other indicators such as stochastics, MACD, volume and volatility were showing a bullish inclination, yet the price chart was not. Hence, our view was guarded until we saw a breakout, past 2750 on good turnover.
This level was significant at several markers in the recent past, and following recent selloffs from 2750 or so by waiting or selling positions would have saved some capital, even as the other indicators said buy.
Today, we see the Russell 2K and Nasdaq at/near all time highs in price, with other indicators supporting the price action in tow. Should this carry the Dow and SPX 500 up as well? There is some good historical evidence for this, and that may indeed be the case if the technical condition remains positive.
Momentum is strong and lasts for quite awhile, as many have been surprised with the aforementioned Russell and Nasdaq exceeding all time highs day after day. Following the technical signals early on (as in early May on the price breakout) would have had you on the right side of the trade. Stay focused on the time-tested technical signals, they won’t often lead you astray.