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Happy Halloween!

Clearly no one is spooked about the markets as we’re drifting along at the highs into the monht’s end – as well as into tomorrow’s Fed meeting and maybe the traders are right and there are no economic monsters under the bed or even in the closet and maybe the President isn’t an uncontrollable monster but a nice orange man who is here to grant all of our wishes – like a giant Oompa Loompa...

As I mentioned last week, Keebler Elf-man Warren Buffett gave us a great reason the markets will hold up through the holidays – the promise of lower taxes but that will require the GOP to hold things together while the indictments are flying around Washington.  If the investing public gets w a whiff of fear – it could start a stampede out of equities.  Money is already flying out of oil longs as the Oil ETF (USO) recorded it’s 3rd consecutive week of outflows – even as the price of oil has risen 5%, from $49 to $54.  Gasoline (UGA) has risen 10%, from $1.55 to $1.70 – oupacing oil by 100%, even as we enter the slowest time of year for demand.  

Not only does that not make sense (OPEC has been talking up oil so speculation is driving the price, not Fundamentals) but the quantity of fake, Fake, FAKE!!! open orders at the NYMEX has never been higer, with 1.3 BILLION FAKE!!! orders in the front 4 months alone.  Consider how ridiculous this is when the US only imports 7Mb/d of oil so these orders, over 120 days, would deliver 10.8Mb/d to Cushing, OK alone – a terminal that can handle, at most, 50M barrels in a month.

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