The $SPX chart in Figure 1 is still a bullish chart. The moving averages are all trending higher. There is support at 2544 (this week’s intraday reversal low), with more important support at 2510 and 2480. A close below 2510 would be somewhat bearish, and a close below 2480 would change the chart to an outright bearish one, in my opinion. But at current levels, there is room for a modest correction without completely rolling over into a bear market.
The weighted equity-only put-call ratio has just rolled over to a sell signal, according to the computer programs that we use to analyze these charts. The standard ratio (Figure 2) has not yet been declared a “sell.”
Market breadth has waned as the market’s momentum has slowed. In fact, the breadth oscillators gave sell signals at the close of trading last Monday, October 23rd. It is often the case that these breadth oscillators — which can be very “whippy” — give premature signals, but now that other indicators are joining in, they take on more credibility.
Volatility indices have remained subdued, and that is bullish for stocks. That will remain the case as long as $VIX continues to close below 13.
In summary, some sell signals have begun to appear. These are indicative of a pending market correction, but they are not going to necessarily change the overall trend of the market. As long as $SPX remains above support, and $VIX remains at low levels, the intermediate-term outlook is still positive for the market.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.