The markets are moving so quickly right now that it’s difficult to assess some of the technical indicators. This is the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that volatility-based hedges are keeping traders afloat.
After two monster rally days this week (Monday and Wednesday), $SPX has resumed its decline with a vengeance. The lows of last Friday, February 28th, at 2885 still represent support although in a market moving this fast, is there really any “support?”
$SPX plunged right through the rising 200-day moving average, which was a bit surprising because that usually provides some support on the first test. However, it was not support during the fall of 2018, so perhaps that is fresh in traders’ minds.
Equity-only put-call ratios are finally beginning to accelerate to the upside. As long as the ratios are rising, that is negative for stocks.
Market breadth has been very negative. Both breadth oscillators remain on sell signals.
From an intermediate-term perspective, the trend of $VIX is extremely negative. The upward trend started on February 20th. As long as $VIX remains above the 200-day moving average of $VIX, that is a negative for stocks.
In summary, this is an intermediate-term bear market. The decline in points has been huge, but not in percentage terms, so there could be more to go.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.