We have repeatedly stated over the years that the S&P 500 index ($SPX) itself is the most important indicator, because even if all the other indicators are saying one thing, but $SPX is not confirming, then $SPX is right.
At the current time, $SPX is breaking out in a bullish manner, but the other indicators — for the most part — are not in agreement. Can $SPX carry the weight all by itself? Yes, because anything is possible, but that’s not the ideal situation.
Equity-only put-call ratios are in an overbought state. The weighted ratio is at multi-year lows and on the cusp of a sell signal. The standard ratio is overbought, but not yet on a sell signal.
Market breadth has been modestly positive, and thus both breadth oscillators on buy signals, but they are in a much weaker state that one would normally expect to see with $SPX breaking out to new highs.
$VIX is low, but the over-riding rule is that as long as $VIX is not trending higher, then stocks can continue to rally. Recently there have been two probes higher — one a more lasting move prior to the “Frexit” vote and the other in response the one-day large market decline last week. That has left the 16 area as resistance on the chart (Figure 4). Unless $VIX moves above there, the longer-term interpretation of the $VIX chart is positive for stocks.
In summary, we have a new all-time high for $SPX and the breakout is confirmed. But the negativity of many of the other indicators should not be overlooked, in my opinion.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.