Up and up she goes.
Now we’re watching that 6,000 line on the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures which is up 33% in 18 months and up 40% from the lows of Jan, 2017. We barely paused at 5,000 and didn’t pull back at 5,500 but our first attempt at 6,000 was rejected and, if we call it a 1,500-point run from 4,500, then the “weak” reatracement, according to our 5% Rule™, would be back to 5,700 – and it was.
Holding the weak retracement is a sign of strength – indicicating that it’s more likely we’re consolidating for a move up than making a sustained move down and now we’re testing 6,000 again but now we have to raise the bar and cannot accept more than a 150-point correction (5,850) to stay bullish on the Nasdaq and failing 5,700 would signal the start of a broader correction, down to 5,400 or possibly all the way to 5,000 before stabilizing. That’s why we pressed the hedges in our Short-Term Portfolio (which protects our Long-Term Portfolio) as well as our Options Opportunity Portfolio, though we still didn’t find many long plays we wanted to take off the table.
That leaves us, so far, net bullish and more bullish than we thought as we “only” have about $300,000 of downside protection in our Short-Term Portfolio against a Long-Term Portfolio that gained $200,000 (17%) in the past 30 days – very aggressively bullish. The Nasdaq is up 300 points (5%) since our last LTP review and that in itself calls for at least a 1% correction (60 points), back to 5,840 but that would then be below 5,850 – so you can see why this is such a tricky spot.
Not much to do but see how the week plays out. In yesterday’s Live Member Chat Room, we took the money and ran on our Tesla (TSLA) short position and we added a long on Chipotle (CMG) towards the close as their sell-off has just gotten silly. I’m not supposed to be giving away trades but this is such a juicy one I’ll tell you what I said to our Members at 2:37:
“CMG Aug $370 calls are $14.30 and were $47 two weeks ago.