Last week here I gave the SPY open interest range and also wrote that based on last Friday’s close higher prices were likely coming. I clearly laid out where there was put support and where there was call resistance – both got hit and rejected price. Knowing where SPY can go and will likely fail is not just helpful for trading SPY or SPX, it’s helpful for all types of trades. On to next week.
SPY-W: (36 of 45 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* The current best pin is between 246.5 and 247. There is call resistance from 247 to 248, but not yet high enough that it can’t easily shift if price gets over it early in the week. The longer price stays under those calls, the less likely the calls will shift. To the down side there is pretty heavy put support from 245 to 246. Should price be very weak and fall underneath 245, then it does have another pin that would work at 244; however, that is the less likely pin.
SPY-F: (29 of 39 pins since I began tracking Friday’s)* This is as straightforward as it gets. There is very small resistance at 247 and then tons at 250. No put support in the near vicinity.
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Wednesday 7/19: Failed to pin. Last Friday when we failed to pin due to price closing higher than its high calls, I said that often leads to a failed pin again to the upside. Lo and behold.
Friday 7/21: It did close under it’s high calls, but there was a better pin so failed this week.